Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 23.916028 28.631144 33.811835 39.897588 46.820646 54.421019 63.364797
2025-07-06 15.738894 21.565434 28.636348 37.724153 48.960180 62.259144 79.040663
2025-07-13 12.439056 18.912145 27.376182 38.981784 54.182321 73.101417 98.080085
2025-07-20 10.150009 16.911031 26.338216 39.980780 58.702776 82.947873 116.096688
2025-07-27 8.583501 15.532163 25.787753 41.334009 63.520898 93.206056 134.955437
2025-08-03 7.291877 14.276216 25.148172 42.342167 67.755394 102.746000 153.175216
2025-08-10 5.927990 12.613948 23.612814 41.770503 69.557802 108.903358 166.961200
2025-08-17 5.031709 11.560985 22.852875 42.215298 72.753670 117.041319 183.704589
2025-08-24 4.191163 10.429008 21.781463 41.998999 74.843294 123.589673 198.373955
2025-08-31 3.329215 9.058071 20.084877 40.536913 74.814354 126.925833 208.452365
2025-09-07 2.884812 8.453439 19.672428 41.166384 78.082024 135.259462 226.064277
2025-09-14 2.345933 7.506683 18.471005 40.267535 78.744571 139.584426 237.813068
2025-09-21 2.054543 7.118354 18.394801 41.541947 83.372856 150.680385 260.863563
2025-09-28 1.514988 5.937121 16.510435 39.266033 81.812921 152.005844 269.188026
2025-10-05 1.326531 5.652947 16.497026 40.562019 86.543256 163.605144 293.837398
2025-10-12 1.148944 5.341386 16.366144 41.592754 90.834429 174.638140 317.952979
2025-10-19 1.015712 5.124895 16.419182 42.988882 95.852592 187.053950 344.656706
2025-10-26 0.883270 4.862135 16.313645 44.028815 100.248047 198.572859 370.264537
2025-11-02 0.705483 4.354519 15.495577 43.439152 101.497838 204.759853 387.380722
2025-11-09 0.594784 4.057413 15.173876 43.897956 104.767565 214.521184 410.631324
2025-11-16 0.481812 3.689156 14.584069 43.674849 106.660156 221.918857 430.152497
2025-11-23 0.358701 3.188213 13.501785 42.166548 105.854929 224.470012 441.586002
2025-11-30 0.303891 3.002869 13.329415 42.815958 109.465957 235.044925 466.882630